The smartphone market is in for a big shift for the rest of 2025. The latest Canalys findings show that the global smartphone market increased by 0.2% last quarter. That’s a slight increase, but a drop compared to previous growth numbers. The latest data marks the third consecutive quarter that market growth has slowed.Â
“Markets that had shown strong momentum over the past year, such as India, Latin America, and the Middle East, are now experiencing notable declines in Q1 2025, indicating saturation in replacement demand for mass-market products,” said Toby Zhu, principal analyst at Canalys.Â
Among the smartphone carriers, Samsung shipped the most — 60.5 million units. Canalys cited the launch of a few of Samsung’s popular models and new A-series prices as reasons for leading growth last quarter.
Canalys pointed out that most Android brands adjusted inventory levels in the first quarter to avoid new product disruptions and to channel pricing of products.
The US smartphone market grew by 12% year over year in the first quarter. Apple drove these results with its iPhone line while being the second-leading carrier globally — selling 55 million units. However, things are expected to change due to the Trump administration’s tariff policy.
“Apple proactively built up inventory ahead of anticipated tariff policies,” said Le Xuan Chiew, research manager at Canalys. “While iPhones produced in Mainland China still account for the majority of US shipments, production in India ramped up toward the end of the quarter, covering standard models of the iPhone 15 and 16 series, alongside accelerating production of the 16 Pro series,”Â
Tariffs could change the smartphone market in the US. Chiew already expects the US market to be volatile for the next two to three quarters. Pending what happens with tariffs, Apple may shift production from China to India.Â
Tariffs could also lead to limited availability of cheaper models and higher prices, and could bring uncertainty for Android products, too.
