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I’ve always heard that tax refunds are for investing or saving for retirement. Mine? It’s for eggs. One carton. That’s it. A clear indicator of how far $12 goes in today’s economy
Luckily, I wasn’t relying on my mini windfall to play the stock market or kickstart my emergency fund. In fact, 38% of US adults plan on using their tax refunds to catch up on overdue bills, tackle debt or cover housing costs, according to a recent CNET survey. Even if you finagled more than $12 back from the IRS this tax season, it might be a temporary lifeline to cover the high cost of essentials.
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As a housing market reporter, I pay close attention to inflation data and labor market figures. I know there’s a gap between official numbers and people’s actual feelings about the economy. Despite a decline in annual inflation and a relatively low unemployment rate, consumer confidence dropped to a 12-year low this month.
“While economic data has held up relatively well, people judge the state of the market based on their own circumstances,” Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda and New Home Source, wrote me in an email. “Is housing expensive? Yes. Are my grocery bills going up or down? Up. Has my income risen? Yes, but not as much as my costs have. What’s happening with my retirement account? The volatility is spooking me out.“
Tariff threats, federal layoffs, market turbulence and stubborn inflation all tend to make us more pessimistic about the economy.
Google Trends data shows “recession” searches surged in the US by some 1,200% earlier this month. While newly confirmed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “the underlying economy is healthy,” such statements are prone to the caveat: There’s no guarantee against an economic downturn.
It’s no wonder so many news headlines feel like #recessionindicators. Here are a few red flags:
- Southwest Airlines ends its long-standing policy of offering free checked bags. Ahead of economic downturns, businesses often prioritize cutting costs to protect profit margins.
- DoorDash partners with Klarna to offer Buy Now, Pay Later options. The option to finance takeout orders in installed payments comes when consumers are worried about food prices and facing record debt levels.
- Law school applications are up 20.5% year over year. Historically, law school has served as a safe haven during economic downturns. This trend mirrors surges seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic.
Now this is a recession indicator. https://t.co/FidmkiorTO
— Domo (@DapperDomo) March 20, 2025
Buying eggs in an uncertain economy
Whether the economy is booming or struggling, there’s a lot of universally helpful personal finance advice that’s worth repeating.
The first thing I recommend is tracking your income and expenses with an eye toward paying down high-interest debt. That can help with basic budgeting and more mindful spending.
The second is to shop around for competitive yields on low-risk investment accounts, like certificates of deposit. Even by transferring just a little each month from your checking account into an emergency fund, automating your savings can help you “set it and forget it.”
Also, given the possibility of a job-loss recession, it’s always a good idea to assess your financial cushion and keep your resume up to date.
Finally, practice resilience. When life gives you eggs, sometimes all you can do is make an omelet.
