It’s inevitable that the anti-Intel flak has been ramping recently as it is about to enter the year when it says it will take back industry process technology leadership.
Gossip about take-over bids, rumours of unit sales and predictions of failure and disaster have proliferated. That is only to be expected as the losses mount and the target for achieving the all-important technology goal comes closer.
Process technology leadership has always been the key which opens the door to the industry treasure trove. The CEO says he’s on track to do it but he would, wouldn’t he?
A resigning director, a Broadcom thumbs-down for the tech, the announcement of a successor for the exec managing the tech development, a hint from a knowledgeable analyst that the development is failing, announcements of potential customers which look contrived – all these suggest Intel will fail.
On the other hand, Intel is ahead of its competitors in prepping the most sophisticated chip-making tools known to man; it says it has secured $45 billion in US support funding; it is pursuing innovations which noone else has mastered and the USA says it wants to regain chip technology supremacy for reasons of security and national competitiveness and Intel is the only US company which can deliver that – if not next year then sometime.
Industry lore says that if you fall behind in process technology it takes ten years to catch up – Intel is trying to catch up in four years.
For Intel it’s been bad luck to have to perform the turnaround in a lacklustre market. With declining revenues and mounting losses it has been difficult to fund the transformation effort, while promised government funds have not yet materialised.
But Intel is still in the hunt and, while China’s threat to the Taiwanese fabs persists, Uncle Sam will want to have the means to make leading edge chips on US soil.
It may take a while, but I can’t see the Yanks giving up on this.
