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With Tesla’s stock bleeding nearly 9% in value after yesterday’s robotaxi event, Wedbush’s Dan Ives believes that the event was a glimpse into the future. Ives explained his position during a talk with CNBC earlier today, and he stands out among the pack of Wall Street analysts who were left unimpressed by Tesla’s announcement due to a lack of details.
Ives believes that three or four years from now, yesterday’s event will appear “as a historical event” since autonomy is the next leg of Tesla’s story, with the firm poised to be a “clear leader in broader autonomous.” Ives never expected Tesla to show off its Model 2 at the event, and to him, the bigger catalysts for Tesla’s stock are overall demand stabilization and a recovery in the Chinese market.
Tesla Might Have Found It Difficult To Share Too Many Details At We, Robot Event Says Wedbush’s Dan Ives
According to Ives, while the details “were obviously scarce,” the true developments surrounding Cybercab will occur over the next 19 to 24 months. One of the most impressive takeaways from the event for him was the unsupervised FSD, which will be rolled out in Tesla models in California and Texas next year. Consequently, Ives believes that the event is “a game changer to the broader story” for the “next few years.”
Talking about price per mile, Ives said that “when you look at Cybercab, and, clearly the two person Cybercab, this is something where, as this goes to the next three to four years, there’s no reason this can’t ultimately be ten, fifteen, twenty percent of overall profits for Tesla” following a ramp up.
When asked about whether the lack of details in the event underwhelmed him, Ives commented, “I think we look back at last night, three, four years from now as a historical moment.” He believes that the Cybercab reveal was more than prototypes, “because ultimately, I think the next leg of the story in terms of autonomous, I believe they will be a clear leader in broader autonomous.”
He added that “when you look at Cybercab, that’s just one piece. I think the other reason the stock’s down is Model 2, lower cost vehicle, they didn’t show it. I think they’re not gonna show, we never expected they’re gonna show that at the event.” Ives believes that the Model 2 is a “2025 story” with other factors such as “demand stabilizing, and just a robust China quarter” along with the cost of goods sold dropping are more critical to Tesla’s hypothesis.
For the next two to three years, Tesla “is the most undervalued AI name in the market.” When asked about identifiable fundamentals for valuing the stock, the analyst conceded that “details are scarce, that was a negative. We wanted more details.” But he added that while Tesla might have been unable to provide many details at the event, Cybercab production will start in 2026, and the key takeaway was FSD as once “FSD penetration increases within Tesla, the story massively changes.”
As to when he’ll need more details, the analyst shared that “by later this year, early next year, you basically need to have some details on when the lower cost vehicle’s coming out, what production looks like. In terms of Cybercab and overall FSD, what the roll out is going to look like in 2025, and most importantly COGS [Cost of Goods Sold]. Because the whole goal here is that Tesla’s is going to be able to decrease COGS significantly, especially with the next gen platform. If that happens, then you get numbers into next year or two, I think they’re underestimated by forty, fifty percent.” However, if these details are absent for six months from now, then a re evaluation will be required, said Ives.
